What is in store for UK house prices in 2011?

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Rise or fall

Scottish surveyors report another fall in house prices and say first time buyers are finding it difficult to get on the property ladder.

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Scots house prices ‘fall again’

UK house prices have continued to slip, the Halifax says, falling by 0.1% in November compared with the previous month.

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House prices ‘fell in November’

UK house prices rose by 1.8% in October compared with September – but this followed a big drop a month earlier, the Halifax says.

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‘Mixed picture’ for house prices

US house prices began falling again in August, following the expiry of homebuyers’ tax credit, a survey suggests.

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US house prices show renewed dip

UK house prices are still under downward pressure as sellers continue to outnumber potential buyers, say surveyors.

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House prices continue to fall

Scotland is the only part of the UK where a continued upward trend is expected in house prices, according to figures from surveyors.

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Scotland bucks house price trend

A bigger proportion of surveyors expect house prices to fall in the coming months than at any time since March last year.

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Surveyors expect prices to fall

UK house prices have stabilised, according to the latest survey from the Halifax.

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Halifax says house prices stable

This article titled “Falling house prices? Blame the media” was written by Patrick Collinson, for guardian.co.uk on Tuesday 10th August 2010 12.29 UTC

House prices are falling for the first time since last July, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics). The reason? Maybe it’s excess supply coming on to the market; maybe it’s the lack of mortgage finance; or maybe it’s fear of job losses in the public sector. Or maybe it’s my fault.

Yes, that’s right. I work for “the media” so therefore I am personally responsible for the level and direction of house prices.

Here are a selection of surveyor comments, from Glamorgan to London via Yorkshire and Gloucestershire, in response to the latest Rics survey:

“Media hype is definitely affecting potential purchasers’ expectations regarding prices falling over the next few years, with lower offers being made as a result”

“I worry that press comment may depress confidence”

“Providing the media does not get negative, there is no reason for a dip. Bricks and mortar are attractive investments as always”

“Doom and gloom in the media is resulting in low valuations. A bit of positive talk and the market would pick up”

It goes on and on. Firms in Colchester, Worcestershire and Walsall comment:

“Media prediction of 20%-40% housing slump is not helpful”

“Media commentary is affecting buyers’ confidence”

“We have noticed over the last 2/3 weeks that the market appears to be quieter. This may well be … a result of the continual media speculation”

Perhaps a firm in Slough sums up the mood of many surveyors when it writes:

“If the property market is left to its own devices, it will gently rise over the next 12 months. If the media scare the public with headlines, this will become a self-fulfilling prophecy”

What appears to unite all the above commentators is the belief that house prices can never fall. They must rise for ever and ever. Only a few wicked people in the press knock the market off its one and only true path.

These are the people who embraced every daft TV programme which, over the past decade, told buyers to binge-borrow and buy whatever they could. They convinced themselves the market was an unstoppable force, and for years they were right.

But this unstoppable force has now met an immovable object. It’s called the banks. They are no longer lending money willy-nilly to anybody knocking on their doors. They want huge deposits, and they will now even check whether you might have the resources to repay the mortgage. How extraordinary.

The conclusion to be reached after 10 years of madcap lending is that house prices are not a function of demand, but are simply a function of how much money the lenders are willing to advance. Almost everything else is immaterial.

With few signs that the banks are loosening the purse strings it is difficult to imagine how prices can advance much further. And “a bit of positive talk” will make not one jot of difference.

guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010

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