Official estimates for public sector job losses are too conservative to meet government spending cuts, an independent forecasting group says.

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UK job cuts estimate ‘too small’

Public sector strikes next week could cost the UK £500m and lead to job losses, say ministers – as unions accuse them of “fantasy economics”.

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War of words over pension strikes

Local councils have been hardest hit by job losses following the UK government’s Spending Review, a study by PricewaterhouseCoopers says.

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Cutbacks ‘hit councils hardest’

The rate of public sector job losses is far greater than official projections and suggests far more jobs will be lost than forecast, researchers say.

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Public sector job cuts ‘deeper’

Chancellor George Osborne has delivered what he has described as a “pro-growth” Budget, against a backdrop of job losses and spending cuts.

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Budget 2011 one of ‘pro-growth’

Wage ‘restraint and reform’ is essential in order to minimise frontline job losses at forces in England and Wales, the home secretary says.

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Cuts to police pay ‘unavoidable’

Government spending cuts and the rise in VAT in January will result in more than 1.6 million job losses over the next six years, research suggests.

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Institute predicts 1.6m job cuts

NHS staff are braced for job losses – despite the chancellor’s pledge to ring fence the £103bn budget for England.

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NHS facing squeeze despite rise

Prime Minister David Cameron has confirmed defence spending is to be cut by 8% in real terms over four years, resulting in job losses for thousands of service personnel.

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Cameron briefs MPs on defence review

Cabinet Office Minister Francis Maude explains why he cannot give details of job losses or savings to be made from a cull of quangos,

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Bonfire or camp fire of the quangos?

Up to 45 of 300 planned job losses at the passport office in Newport are to be saved, says the Welsh secretary.

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Up to 45 passport jobs ‘secured’

The leading public sector union Nipsa says that job losses need not be an inevitable consequence of the spending review.

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Cuts job losses ‘not inevitable’

A senior civil servant at the Department of Culture, Arts and Leisure says that job losses are inevitable because of the cuts it has to make

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DCAL cuts ‘will mean job losses’

This article titled “Greece’s economy deeper in recession than forecast” was written by Katie Allen, for The Guardian on Thursday 12th August 2010 14.03 UTC

Greece’s recession deepened more than expected in the second quarter of 2010 after the country was rocked by its financial crisis and a series of government measures to slash public debt.

Investment dropped and public spending slumped in the three months to June as Greek politicians battled to regain the confidence of financial markets and meet the conditions of a multibillion-euro bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

There was also a fresh warning sign that the economic crisis could further intensify social unrest, after a record jump in unemployment. The crisis has already led to widespread industrial action and public protests.

With the fiscal squeeze only just starting, Greece is expected to remain mired in recession for the rest of this year.

The country’s ELSTAT statistics office estimated that second-quarter GDP fell by 1.5% during the three months, and was 3.5% less than a year ago. Those were steeper falls than the quarterly 1% and annual 3.3% contractions forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

The falls were also sharper than in the first quarter. So while many fellow European economies, including the UK, were enjoying a quickening recovery out of recession in the second quarter, Greece’s first-quarter contraction of 0.8% almost doubled. The statistics office said that the deterioration reflected a drop in investment and public spending cuts.

Economists predict Greece’s economy is unlikely to recover for some time yet as austerity measures continue to hurt consumers and businesses. The overhaul includes a public-sector pay freeze, a VAT rise, new laws making it easier for companies to lay off workers and a higher retirement age.

Giada Giani at Citigroup told Reuters: “We think the largest hit to private consumption from tighter fiscal policy is probably still ahead of us, as monthly indicators on consumer spending had not really plummeted yet in the second quarter.

“On the other hand, net export probably provided a large positive contribution to GDP as export growth is lifted by improving global trade while import is depressed by falling domestic demand.

“We expect growth to remain negative for the rest of the year, with an average decline of around 3.5% for 2010.”

Reflecting the austerity measures and efforts to shrink the public sector, Greek unemployment posted a record jump in May. According to labour market data from the statistics service, the unemployment rate rose sharply to 12% from 8.5% a year earlier. It was the biggest annual rise since comparable records began in 2004, with the number of people out of work rocketing by 43% from May 2009 to 602,185.

Echoing a report overnight from the International Labour Organisation (ILO), the Greek data showed young people were the hardest hit by the latest jump in unemployment. The jobless rate for 15- to 24-year-olds now stands at 32.5% in Greece.

According to the ILO, global youth unemployment has hit an all-time high and is expected to rise further this year. It says that of about 620 million economically active 15- to 24-year-olds, 81 million were unemployed at the end of 2009, the highest number since records began in 1991. That put the global youth unemployment rate at 13%.

In the UK, labour market data yesterday showed youth unemployment slipped back in the second quarter. The jobless rate for 18- to 24-year-olds here is 17.5%.

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This article titled “US job losses are double expected figure” was written by Katie Allen, for guardian.co.uk on Friday 6th August 2010 13.54 UTC

Employers in the US shed twice as many jobs as expected in July, fanning fears that the recovery in the world’s largest economy will not see a revival in employment.

The US government said 131,000 jobs were lost overall, compared with forecasts for a 65,000 fall. The drop was mainly due to work finishing for temporary staff hired by the government to conduct its census. But private hiring was also weaker than expected.

Economists polled by Reuters ahead of the monthly non-farm payrolls data, forecast that private-sector jobs would rise by 90,000, but in the event only 71,000 were added.

At the same time, June’s overall drop was revised to a far steeper 221,000 from 125,000.

The data sparked a rally in government bonds, seen as safer investments when the economic picture darkens. Crude oil futures dropped on the prospect of weaker demand from the US market and stock indices also fell, including the FTSE 100 in the UK.

“This employment report only reinforces a sluggish recovery. Private sector job and income gains are not weak enough to point to a renewed downturn, nor are they strong enough to suggest the recovery is free of such risk,” said Stephen Gallagher, economist at Société Générale.

Within July’s drop, 143,000 jobs were census staff who were laid off, but there were also a further 59,000 public sector job losses as the US government mirrored its counterparts around the world in tightening budgets. Economists voiced concerns that the private sector outlook was also gloomy, suggesting that Americans will remain wary about their job prospects and do little to power the recovery.

“This is not good news for consumer confidence or spending and will intensify concerns about the pace of the recovery at the Federal Reserve,” said James Knightley economist at ING Financial Markets.

“Given the recent data flow on activity we doubt we will see a surge in private-sector employment over the next couple of months, which implies a further fall in total payrolls is probable next month.”

The sharp drop in jobs, which follows news of slowing economic growth in the US, is likely to prompt discussions at the Federal Reserve over implementing more quantitative easing – a way of pumping money into the financial system. The central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on Tuesday and Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has already hinted to markets that its programme of asset purchases could be resumed.

“The big picture is unfortunately that the downtrend in US economic growth is once again obvious, and these figures will probably do little to deter the FOMC from ultimately implementing fresh stimulus in the near future,” said Nick Beecroft at Saxo Bank.

“I’d expect them to reinstate a quantitative easing programme – buying either US Treasuries or mortgage-backed securities – either at next week’s meeting, or more likely at the following meeting on 21 September.”

Still, there was some comfort for president Barack Obama as he battles to ensure the economic recovery is accompanied by job creation. The unemployment rate held steady at 9.5% in July, defying expectations that it would rise to 9.6%.

But the steady rate, which is measured by the government’s household survey, reflected the fact that employment fell 159,000 while at the same time the workforce shrunk by 181,000 as people stop looking for work for various reasons.

“The fact that so many people are leaving the workforce is not positive in that it suggests people are giving up looking for work due to the lack of jobs,” said Knightley.

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